Scientists warn that the number of cancer deaths resulting from the
Fukushima disaster could be closer to 1,000 than the 125 predicted.
Scientists have warned that the
number of cancer deaths resulting from the Fukushima nuclear power plant
disaster could be closer to 1,000 than the 125 predicted.
Studies that quantify the health
consequences of radiation exposure remain controversial, due in part to the
uncertainty of the mathematical models and assumptions used. Here, a team from
Princeton University has revealed that long-term effects of the nuclear
accident are likely to be worse than a previous
prediction by John Ten Hoeve and Mark Jacobson (TH&J) from
Stanford University.
By considering the gamma-ray dose
from land contaminated with cesium-134 and cesium-137, the Princeton team found
that the TH&J projection of 125 future cancer-related deaths globally may
be an underestimate. This was because long-term doses from radiocesium in the
environment were not considered by TH&J in their analysis. Being the first
to quantify the worldwide impacts of the Fukushima radiation, TH&J
concluded that there were no significant public health effects.
Radiation-induced cancer usually
takes several decades to develop. Ionizing radiation first damages the DNA in
our cells, and if these cells do not get repaired by DNA repair machinery, they
accumulate further errors leading to a higher risk that cancers such as
leukemia may develop.
As radiocesium is absorbed by the
soil or deposited into streams, the researchers expect a prolonged presence of
radiocesium in the air, water, and food after the Fukushima accident.
Radiocesium persists as long as 2.4 to 38 years, according to a previous
assessment of the Chernobyl accident. In contrast, TH&J based their
analysis on the assumption that radiocesium disappears with a half-life of 14
days.
While there are some
uncertainties in their calculations of the long-term radiocesium dose, the
researchers believe that the number of future cancer mortality is likely to be
closer to 1,000 than to 125.
The article can be found
at: Beyea J et al. (2013) Accounting
for long-term doses in “Worldwide health effects of the Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear accident.
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